ADP Fallers

The fantasy market has a tendency to over correct on valuing players year over year.  This often presents an opportunity to find assets that come at a cheaper price tag than they should.  Often, this over correction relates to a player’s failure to meet expectations in the prior year rather than the underlying facts and figures supporting his circumstances in the coming season.  Let’s take a look at some the players whose ADP has significantly fallen when compared to last season.

1. Jason Witten – TE Dallas 2016 ADP 162, 2015 ADP 85

In 2016 drafts Witten is going as the 16th tight end off the board.  In 2015, he was the 8th. So why the huge drop?  Well, he’ll be 34 and a year older in 2016 and is coming off of his worst season since 2006.  He’s not the Jason Witten he once was.  This is all true.  But the drop off seems far too steep.  Over the last five seasons, Witten has averaged 194 PPR points and a season ending rank of 7.  Granted, his production has dropped.  Between 2011 and 2013 he averaged 13.3 points per game.  In 2014 and 2015, he posted only 10.3.  Of course, we need to remember that Tony Romo missed 12 games in 2015 and this surely had a negative impact on the long time Cowboy.  In his entire 13 year career, he has never finished outside the top 10 of tight end rankings.  He’s as durable as they come and at an ADP of 162 is a really great value and perfect option for drafters that wait on their tight ends.  By the way, tight ends performing at elite levels in their mid-30’s is not unheard of.

2. Ryan Tannehill – QB Miami 2016 ADP 152, 2015 ADP 92

There was a great deal of hype surrounding not only Tannehill, but the entire Dolphins’ offense heading into 2015.  Unfortunately for Miami fans, things were an absolute cluster for the majority of the season.  In fact, things were so bad that the Dolphins’ fired OC Bill Lazor after week 11.  When all was said and done, Tannehill totaled 280 points and finished as the 17th ranked quarterback.  At his current ADP, the market is valuing him as the 22nd fantasy passer for the 2016 season.  This doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  Even as a rookie, he cracked the top 25, and finished top 10 in 2014.  Last season was a near nightmare for the Miami offense and it’s hard to imagine things getting any worse.  Though Lamar Miller, a savvy receiving back, will no longer be with the team, new HC and QB guru Adam Gase will look to find ways to get Jay Ajayi or rookie Kenay Drake involved in the team’s aerial attack.  His receiving corp figures to be solid as his security blanket, Jarvis Landry, will be returning, DeVante Parker will be at full strength and Leonte Carroo appears to be a complimentary addition.  Things are definitely trending in a positive direction for the 5th year quarterback.  We can’t guarantee a top 15 finish, but it feels far more likely than his current ADP would lead you to believe.

3. Frank Gore – RB Indianapolis 2016 ADP 85, 2015 ADP 28

Frank Gore, as he always does, had a sneaky good 2015, even if it didn’t feel like it.  Clearly, I wasn’t the only fantasy player that left the 2015 season with this incorrect notion, as evidenced by his ADP plummet.  Let’s re-calibrate by first reviewing  what Gore did in his first season with colts: He scored 7 total touchdowns, rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and finished as a top 14 back in both standard and PPR formats.  This was during a season in which the Colts fired OC Pep Hamilton and saw their starting QB miss substantial time. The offense, which had been highly touted, was a major disappointment.  From a fantasy perspective, Gore had by and large the most successful 2015 campaign of any Colt.  Yet, the market has downgraded him more than any other of the key players in the Indy offense.  I get it.  Gore’s old.  He’s so old that he walked to school, up hill, both ways, with no socks and it snowed everyday kind of old.  The drop off has to come at some point, right?

I’ve been waiting for him to fall off a cliff for nearly half a decade now, but it hasn’t happened.  With a seventh round ADP, his 2016 price is more than fair.  Between 2011 and 2015, Gore has posted an average PPR season ending rank of 16.  He averaged 12 points a game last season and if the offensive situation in Indianapolis improves in 2016, I see no reason why Gore wouldn’t be able to produce at levels similar to those of last season.  Sure he comes with a limited ceiling and you could argue he possesses a low floor, but he’s a starter with a highly proven track record.  As the 33rd running back taken, he has as a good a chance as any to beat his ADP.

 

 

 

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