Included in the 2017 user guide, accompanying the tool, will be a full mock draft in which I break down what I’m looking at during each pick and explain my thought process. The idea is to help less-experienced players get a sense of the things they may want to consider during their draft. This section of the guide also gives a great outline of the tools functionality and how you will be able to incorporate it into your mock/real drafts. Sorry for the poor picture quality…
Excerpts from Rounds 1 through 6…
Now that we’ve covered the purpose of the tool, gained an understanding of the settings and are familiar with the interface let’s run through a mock draft! Please note that I am conducting this draft on 6/6/2017 so ADP, Tiers and my approach to this mock will likely be somewhat different in August.
Mock League Overview:
- PPR Scoring
- 16 player rosters
- Snake Draft
- Starts – 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1RB/WR/TE, 1K, 1DST, 6 Bench
Though I would probably employ a Zero-RB approach in this league, let’s go with a more balanced approach for this demonstration. Due to supply and demand, there are more than enough usable quarterbacks to go around – and the drop off in quality between the top drafted passer and those available in double-digit rounds will be much less than at any other position. In general, I take a similar stance with tight ends. Since I only need to play a single player at these positions I choose to wait on them, rather than absorb the opportunity cost of passing on scarcer positions such as RB and WR. As a result I set my positional preferences as follows:
After setting the nicknames of the other teams in our draft I used the random pick # generator to determine that we will be drafting with the ninth pick.
Finally, we will be drafting in a league where owners employ a balanced strategy. As such, I used the ‘Balanced’ template to generate the positional preferences of the computer teams that we will be drafting against.
We will be using the provided FFDP tiers. Remember that we could utilize the ‘Player Info’ tab to include another set of tiers as well as include three sets of our own data that will pull into the interface.
Within the interface, I have sorted the ‘Available Players’ table by Tier and used the radio-buttons to select WR.
As WR is the scarcest position based upon the ‘Weighted Scarcity’ table and the ‘Dave Weighted Needs’ table is indicating that WR is our biggest need I’m thinking that we will go with one of the two remaining Tier 1 WRs and select AJ Green. WR is the scarcest position under these conditions as it is the position with the largest overall demand and has a dwindling supply of its scarcest resource.
All of the Tier 2 RBs that remained available at our last pick have been drafted. As a result, WR is again the scarcest position. Based upon roster settings and our positional preferences, the weighted needs math is pointing toward again selecting a WR.
I’d much rather have a Tier 2 WR than a Tier 3 RB so we will go with a receiver again and select TY Hilton. Further, if we look at the ‘Pos Selected in Next x’ table and the ‘Anticipated by Round’ table it seems that there’s a chance we might be able to get the remaining Tier 3 RB with our next pick.
As luck would have it, there are actually three RBs from Tier 3 available – – Carlos Hyde, Spencer Ware and Mark Ingram. Though WR is the scarcest position on a weighted basis, our team needs favor selecting a RB.
This is where I should remind users that both of these tables are just there to help you make decisions, though they have been designed to help you optimize the quality of players that you are drafting to your, team never feel that you must follow them. The whole idea of the tool is to give you something that you can use to feel empowered and make your own decisions.
If we’re feeling torn about spending this pick on a Tier 3 RB, rather than WR, let’s keep in mind that there’s still eight Tier 3 WRs available. Since there are only six picks until we are up again, it’s a guarantee that we will be able to add one. This should give us a solid foundation at WR, so let’s get one these backs while we can and go with Mark Ingram.
Though all players in a tier represent a similar range of outcomes I’m giving the edge to Ingram since he plays in a high-powered offense with an absolutely phenomenal quarterback. Though Ingram has an ADP of 50 and we could wait on him, the “correct” decision here is to pick him. It’s unlikely, but a possibility that if we go WR with this pick he and the other two options could get drafted.
We could double down and grab another Tier 3 RB. Yes, they are available. However, since this is a PPR league I will want to fill my flex with a WR so I’m going to prioritize getting a Tier 3 WR here over the second RB. In this event, I will override the recommendation of the team needs table. With the way this draft is shaking out I want to round out the base of a solid WR corps.
Let’s grab Michael Crabtree and pivot back to RB at our next pick.
Through 56 picks a total of 2 QBs, 22 RBs, 29 WRs and 3 TEs have been chosen. One of the computer teams did go Zero-RB.
Though we had planned on using this pick on a RB, the situation has changed and we have the chance to grab another Tier 3 WR. There’s 8 RBs remaining in Tier 4 so there’s no harm in passing on the position with this pick.
Let’s go with Stefon Diggs.
Though tight end is growing increasingly scarce, our team could use another RB. We have ample opportunity to grab both a serviceable QB and TE later. The selection of Tier 4 RBs at disposal doesn’t really get me jazzed up at all but we’ll select Ty Montgomery. He figures to have a role the Packer’s offense no matter how things shake out in 2017 and if he hits would carry a lot of upside.