I can understand why you’re excited about Big Ben, but don’t reach and draft him early. He’s not a lock to finish top five at the QB position.
It’s no secret that the same can be said for receivers; opportunity trumps efficiency. As such, we need to consider the volume of targets that a player will likely receive when choosing an appropriate point in the draft to select him.
Keeping this relationship in mind, we can assign an expected workload to running backs based on averages and ranks. For example, between 2013 and 2015, the PPR RB10 saw an average opportunity of 271. As of June 8th, Mark Ingram is the 10th running back drafted.
In an attempt to find running backs that are regression candidates, I did some digging through points per opportunity (PPO). For the purposes of this post, ‘opportunity’ consists of rushing attempts as well as targets in the passing game.
The fantasy market has a tendency to over correct on valuing players year over year. This often presents an opportunity to find assets that come at a cheaper price tag than they should.
For the first time in 11 seasons, Roddy White will not be an option in the Atlanta passing game. The veteran earned 70 targets in 2015 , 125 in 2014 and 97 in 2013. In the coming season, White’s role as the second option through the air will likely be taken over by 5th year, and off-season acquisition, receiver Mohamed Sanu.
Let’s take a look at each team’s propensity to air things out. We want our receivers and ends to be peppered with targets.